The TML Talk | June 20th, 2025

Market Overview

• Major indexes logged another light distribution day, yet leadership shrugged it off; most growth names closed flat-to-higher despite the broader dip.
• The Nasdaq and S&P are still sitting on their rising 21-day moving averages, while small-caps and the Dow continue to confirm the overall up-trend.
• Rotation remains healthy: brokers, infrastructure software, quantum-computing plays, and select restaurants are setting up alongside semis and AI.
• Breadth is strong enough that the presenters are trimming weaker watch-list names instead of hunting for fresh ideas—typical of constructive tapes.
• The only notable caution flag is “wedging” in a few mega-cap leaders as price rises on declining weekly volume; a brief shakeout would actually reset that risk.

Actionable Takeaways

• Treat the 10-/21-Day Zone as a Tactical Entry Point: Light-volume pullbacks into these averages often offer the lowest-risk spot to start or add. Confirm the entry only if price stabilises intraday and volume turns supportive.
• Demand Convincing Breakouts: A valid breakout should clear the latest declining-tops line or recent range high on noticeably heavier volume. If turnover is average or lighter, assume a head-fake and keep exposure small.
• Lean on Relative-Strength and Group Leadership: Favour stocks whose RS lines are rising to new highs while their industry group indices are also outperforming. Leadership that is isolated rarely delivers sustained gains.
• Scale Position Size to Volatility: Begin with smaller “pilot” stakes when a chart shows wide price swings or limited cushion. Pyramid only after the stock proves itself with a higher low, tight action, and renewed volume.
• Let Moving Averages Police the Trade—Not Your Emotions: A decisive close below the 23-day is a caution flag; a close below the 50-day while distribution is expanding is a clear sell rule. Avoid premature exits if these levels are intact, but act decisively once they fail.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Interactive Media & Services:

• $META – Orderly pullback into the 21-/23-day zone and prior breakout area; RS line remains in an up-channel, suggesting leadership is intact.
• $NBIS – IPO that doubled from launch; now printing a tight handle while volume eases each day, pointing to controlled supply.
• $NFLX – First mega-cap to clear highs this cycle; every test of the rising 10-day has been defended, keeping the trend firm.
• $TME – ADR continues to trace a shallow sideways band above all major averages with quiet trade, showing patient sponsorship.

Consumer Discretionary – Restaurants & Retail:

• $AMZN – Drifting into the clustered 21/23-day and prior pivot; a decisive upside reversal from that zone would reset momentum.
• $EAT – Up-trend advancing in stair-step fashion; handle narrowing as turnover fades, a classic pre-move signature.
• $SHAK – Cup-with-handle cleared on strong volume; holding the 10-day verifies institutional follow-through.
• $TSLA – Inside week and inside month developing just below a flattening 21-day; reclaim of that line plus RS lift would confirm fresh demand.
• $URBN – Three-week-tight pattern forming; repeated volume contraction indicates holders unwilling to sell.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $ODD – Reclaimed the 10-/21-/23-day cluster and the short down-trend line; tight price bars hint at accumulation beneath the surface.

Financials – Capital Markets & FinTech:

• $HOOD – Flat base riding the 10-day; distribution absent while RS quietly trends higher.
• $IBKR – Post-split cup-with-handle; handle turnover well below average, keeping the pattern constructive.
• $LMND – Sharp rebound now shaping an orderly handle above the 21-day; buyers continue to absorb pulls.
• $TOST – Flag forming under prior resistance; only a single close beneath the 23-EMA during the pause, reflecting tight ownership.

Health Care – Biotechnology:

• $AKRO – Handle building on the 21-day with near-dormant volume, setting up an actionable breakout level.
• $GH – Stage-2 reversal holds the 10-/21-day stack; steady up-weeks underline professional support.
• $GILD – Multi-month coil just under long-term resistance; recent positive weeks arrive on heavier trade, hinting at accumulation ahead of a larger move.
• $RPRX – Royalty model walking up the right side of a fresh structure; ideal add-point rests near the 10-/23-day pair.

Industrials – Aerospace, Defense & Infrastructure:

• $AXON – Continues to grind higher along the 10-day; each dip to the 21-day has attracted sponsorship.
• $BYRN – Vertical run now digesting gains; fresh base setting up above trend support.
• $ECG – Contractor drifting sideways after a rapid advance; ebbing volume underscores constructive consolidation.

Information Technology – Semiconductors, Cybersecurity & Software:

• $ALAB – Three-week shelf under round-number resistance; looking for tighter closes after Friday’s shake.
• $AVGO – Range-bound just beneath prior highs; a forceful move on expanding volume would open a new leg.
• $CRDO – Green-line breakout underway; former pivot and 10-day now mark nearby support for adds.
• $CRWD – Cyber leader hugs the 23-EMA while the group cools; base structure remains intact.
• $DAVE – Gap-up advance now basing on the 23-EMA; no heavy selling since the gap, keeping the setup live.
• $DOMO – Early Stage-2A climb pausing at the 23-EMA; watching for a tight turn off support.
• $GWRE – Undercut of earnings-gap low followed by a quick reclaim; needs a high-volume thrust to confirm buyers.
• $IONQ – Quantum hardware name easing into the 23-EMA on light trade, a constructive check-back.
• $LIF – Infrastructure-software player carving a low-volume shelf; weekly pattern holds its up-channel.
• $MSTR – Bitcoin proxy coiling beneath converging averages; a breakout through the short descending trend line would re-ignite momentum.
• $NVDA – Riding the 10-day in tight fashion; a calculated shake into the 23-day could reset the base and clear wedge-type action.
• $ORCL – Broad shelf continues to mature; volume profile shows no real distribution since earnings gap.
• $QBTS – Thin quantum name tracking constructively; position sizing must stay modest due to liquidity.
• $QUBT – Early-stage quantum play with an orderly pattern; higher risk, but volume support remains steady.
• $SNOW – Intraday squat held the 10-day; entire base and rising trend still intact despite the shake.
• $ZS – Zero-trust peer mirroring CRWD; defended the 10-day after a quick pull, leaving the up-trend unbroken.

Utilities – Alternative & Nuclear Energy:

• $GEV – Grid-modernisation specialist resting on the rising 10-/21-day cluster; low volume during pause signals healthy digestion.
• $OKLO – Advanced-nuclear developer revisiting prior highs while respecting its primary up-trend line; volatility elevated yet within character.