The TML Talk | June 6th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  • The NASDAQ continues to lead, showing resilience despite a sharp bout of volatility Thursday. The index briefly dipped below the 10-day but quickly recovered, with leadership names snapping back into form. Price action remains constructive, with a majority of top setups holding key support and showing continuation potential.
  • The S&P 500 mirrors that strength, reclaiming short-term moving averages and holding above the 10- and 21-day lines. Volume has been mixed, but structure remains intact, and the rotation beneath the surface is supportive of broader market health.
  • The Dow remains a laggard, having just reclaimed its 200-day moving average after multiple failed attempts. While the reclaim is a positive step, its price action remains sloppier and less constructive than the NASDAQ and S&P. The Russell 2000, while still the weakest index overall, managed a powerful Friday gap-and-hold above short-term levels. Small caps remain well off their highs but continue to make slow progress.
• Current Market Status:
  • The reaction to Thursday’s news-driven volatility offered a revealing test — and most leaders passed. Stocks like $RBLX and $HOOD didn’t flinch, while others found support at the 10- or 21-day, highlighting the difference between structurally strong setups and speculative noise. Leadership is becoming increasingly defined by its reaction to bad tape — and most core names are holding or building.
  • Key sectors including fintech, cybersecurity, nuclear, and select commodity stocks remain in strong alignment, with multiple names forming flags or reclaiming prior resistance levels with volume. High-quality IPOs continue to base tightly near highs, and several former laggards are moving into stage-two transitions off the lows.
  • Overall tone remains constructive. This is a market where setup quality and personality matter far more than index headlines. Traders should stay aggressive only in clean setups with clear RS and group confirmation, while avoiding thin breakouts and overextended entries.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “One of the most expensive mistakes I’ve made over and over again is selling too early—closing out a position just because I was afraid to lose the profit. It hadn’t hit my stop. The structure was still fine. But I’d see it close weak, or give back a little, and I’d panic. Then the next day, it would reverse and take off without me. The lesson is painfully simple: have a plan before the trade, and then follow it. If the plan says hold unless the 10-day breaks, you hold. If I’d followed that consistently—just stayed out of my own way—I’d have kept more winners and cut fewer regrets.”
• “Position sizing has to match the setup and where you are in the trade. I see too many people load up big right away because they like a chart. I’ve done it myself—and I’ve paid the price. If I’m buying off a 10-day or near a key moving average, and I don’t have cushion, that’s not the time for size. I’ll start with a third or a half, and only build when the trade starts working. That way, if I’m wrong, I can get out clean. Size is earned, not assumed—and it’s your job to make sure you can live with the consequences of your entry.”
• “Managing risk has a lot less to do with being right and a lot more to do with what you can hold. There are stocks I’ve been totally right on—great earnings, great charts—but I couldn’t sit through the pullbacks because the personality was too wild. It’s taken me years to realize that if a name trades too wide, it doesn’t matter how bullish I am—I’m not going to be able to hold it. And if I can’t hold it, it doesn’t belong in my account. The key is to find setups with structure I can actually sit with when things get volatile.”
• “There’s a very big difference between market noise and market signal, and one of the clearest signals we ever get is group alignment. When five or ten stocks in the same sector start flagging tightly or breaking out on volume at the same time—whether it’s quantum, cybersecurity, or utilities—that’s not random. That’s institutions moving in. You can’t afford to dismiss that. If you keep treating it like coincidence, you’re going to be stuck on the sidelines while the next theme runs without you.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Treat Shakeouts as Opportunities: Several top names offered ideal re-entries or adds after Thursday’s flush—especially those that held 10- or 21-day support into the close.
• Focus on RS + Group Confirmation: Sectors like fintech, cyber, and utilities continue to move in tight formation. Look for volume and structure to confirm rotational conviction.
• Size with Volatility in Mind: Especially in thinner or extended names, keep initial positions smaller and reactive. Use strength to build only after technical confirmation.
• Avoid Selling for Fear Alone: If a name hasn’t hit your stop and the structure is intact, resist the urge to sell just to “lock in” a profit. Let the setup complete.
• Use the 10-day as a Barometer: Many leaders continue to hug the 10-day. Loss of that level with volume should raise caution. Otherwise, lean on it as your tactical guide.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Broadcasting, Streaming & Internet:

• $RDDT: Reclaimed short-term support and flagged tightly post-earnings. Volume surged on key days, and RS improved sharply. Setup is developing just beneath recent highs. Buyable on breakout with tight stop, especially if peer names confirm.
• $RBLX: Showed impressive relative strength throughout the week, never breaking the 10-day during volatility. RS remained firm, with volume patterns suggesting institutional support. Still a valid add near support or through highs if rotation persists.
• $SPOT: Flagging constructively above rising MAs. Volume expanded post-earnings and remained steady on pullbacks. Tight range offering clear risk levels. Buyable on continuation through near-term resistance with volume confirmation.

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Education:

• $AS: High-beta name acting well but still too illiquid for many traders. Volume confirmed recent RS improvement. Flagging just under prior highs. Watch for breakout with confirmation; performance enhancer-style entry.
• $BOOT: Post-earnings digestion unfolding tightly. Weekly structure forming with RS improving. Valid breakout setup above short-term range. Addable through resistance with stop under the 10-day.
• $BROS: Continued to respect short-term support through market chop. RS trend steady. Flag forming with improving volume behavior. Buyable on breakout or early on a support retest.
• $GRPN: Mentioned as speculative name showing volume pop and structural improvement. Flagged after reclaiming support. Still a high-volatility entry—only valid with clear volume and group confirmation.
• $SHAK: High-volume breakout followed by tight flag near highs. Maintained RS trend throughout. Buyable on continuation with stop beneath short-term MA.
• $URBN: Consolidating post-move, forming a tight flag above rising MAs. RS trend steady. Entry valid on volume push through resistance if peer group confirms strength.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $ELF: Post-earnings range forming at high levels. Volume lighter on pullbacks, with RS trend holding. Structurally clean and part of broader consumer strength. Buyable on breakout continuation.
• $ODD: AI-driven retail name consolidating post-breakout. Volume contraction orderly. Tight upper-range flag remains valid. Second entry possible if breakout resolves with group alignment.

Energy – Utilities & Nuclear:

• $CCJ: Nuclear infrastructure standout. Pulled back orderly on light volume. RS leadership continues. Tight range holding above 10-day. Buyable on breakout with volume or pullback support hold.
• $GEV: Grid modernization play showing rising RS. Volume light but supportive. Consolidating near range highs. Buyable on breakout or early if liquidity improves.
• $NRG: Utilities rotation name. Forming flag just under prior highs. Volume dry-up constructive. Valid entry on breakout or continuation through base high.
• $OKLO: Digesting large post-IPO breakout. Pullback remains above key MAs. Flag developing. Buyable on volume-backed continuation.
• $VST: Quiet leader in power names. Holding base above all key moving averages. RS trend confirmed. Buyable on breakout or support retest.

Financials – Capital Markets & FinTech:

• $HOOD: Speculation on S&P 500 inclusion drove volume during week, gapping down AH on Friday due to lack of inclusion. RS trend rising. Breakout re-test entry valid with volume confirmation.
• $IBKR: Cup-and-handle structure forming on weekly chart. Tight action above MAs. RS recovering. Entry valid through handle high on confirmation.
• $SCHW: Reclaiming trend with constructive volume. RS improving modestly. Forming shallow base. Buyable on breakout or pullback to trendline.
• $SOFI: Still maturing post-pullback. Not yet leadership quality, but trend is stabilizing. Entry possible only if it tightens further with volume support.
• $TOST: Clean base forming post-earnings. Flag developing above 10- and 21-day MAs. RS and volume constructive. Buyable on breakout or early with stop below MAs.

Health Care – Biotech & Pharmaceuticals:

• $BCRX: Pulled back to 21-day after strong advance. Volume quiet on the pullback. RS trend holding. Entry valid on breakout or flag continuation.
• $EXEL: Post-earnings coil forming tightly. RS trend improving. Setup remains viable on breakout through upper base resistance.
• $GILD: Weekly structure forming beneath resistance. RS gradually recovering. Volume behavior supportive. Early-stage buy on breakout with group strength.
• $ISRG: Weekly consolidation holding above support. RS trend flat but stable. Longer-term setup developing. Entry valid on breakout with sector confirmation.
• $SRRK: Speculative biotech name with strong volume surge. Structure wide-and-loose, best suited for aggressive accounts. Setup viable on high-volume continuation.

Industrials – Space Machinery & More Nuclear:

• $BV: Mentioned for RS improvement and base formation. Volume building. Watching for breakout confirmation. Buyable through short-term resistance.
• $ECG: Flagged as grid play with constructive trend. Volume behavior healthy. Entry viable on volume-backed breakout through tight range.
• $MYRG: Quiet leader in grid and electric infrastructure. Reclaiming MAs with low-volume pullback. Setup forming near highs. Buyable with volume through resistance.
• $NXT: Nuclear infrastructure exposure with RS improvement. Forming tight coil after strong move. Buyable on breakout with volume.
• $RKLB: Strong rebound from shakeout. Volume constructive, and 10-day held throughout. Buyable on continuation through resistance or near-term base high.

Information Technology – Cyber Security, Quantum, & Software:

• $APP: Tight base forming above earnings gap. Volume declining orderly. RS trend remains strong. Buyable on volume-backed breakout with group confirmation.
• $AVGO: One of the most technically stable semis. Flagging above short-term support. Volume light on pullbacks. RS strong. Core hold or breakout candidate.
• $CLS: Double-bottom structure held on Friday with add through 124. Volume and RS trend confirm strength. Buyable continuation setup.
• $CRDO: Pullback held cleanly at support. RS improving. Flag developing above MAs. Buyable on breakout or early with clear stop.
• $CRWD: Pulled back and held 21-day cleanly. RS trend stable. Entry viable through recent high with group confirmation.
• $DAVE: Thin, early-stage name. RS improving. Tight flag forming above key support. Valid only for aggressive entries with volume.
• $FTNT: Cyber name with coiling structure. Volume contracting. RS trend constructive. Watch for group alignment and breakout.
• $GRRR: Breakout name holding gains. RS strong. Performance enhancer-type candidate. Entry valid on continuation or support retest.
• $IONQ: Digesting gains post-breakout. RS trend intact. Setup developing for second-stage breakout. Buyable on volume push through range.
• $KD: Cup-with-handle forming near psychological level at $100. RS and volume trending positively. Watch for breakout with volume confirmation.
• $NET: Extended after strong run. Ten-week uptrend remains intact. RS trend strong. Use 10-day as trailing stop. Buyable on continuation.
• $NOW: Holding post-earnings range near highs. RS trend firm. Tight intraday action. Buyable on breakout with volume.
• $PLTR: Holding above breakout zone. RS improving. Entry valid on pullback support or fresh breakout with confirmation.
• $QBTS: Quantum name showing strong RS. Flag breakout supported by volume. Buyable on continuation with clear stop.
• $QUBT: Lagging quantum peer. RS not confirming. Needs further development. Not actionable until setup matures.
• $SHOP: Pulling back constructively. RS trend intact. Watching for volume contraction and tightening range before re-entry.
• $SNOW: Earnings gap held. Structure tight. RS trend stable. Entry valid with group confirmation and breakout strength.
• $TSSI: Thin name holding breakout area. RS trend solid. Watch for pattern resolution and volume confirmation.
• $TWLO: Reclaimed short-term MAs. RS turning up. Structure recovering. Viable early entry on strength through upper base.
• $YMM: Base forming post-pullback. RS trend constructive. Buyable on breakout through short-term resistance with volume.

Thematic ETFs – Bitcoin, Gold, Nuclear, & Quantum:

• $GLD: Consolidating near upper range. RS stable. Acting well as gold rotates into focus. Valid for thematic exposure.

Ross’ Watchlist

• Communication Services: RDDT
• Consumer Discretionary: AS BOOT BROS GRPN SHAK URBN ELF ODD
• Energy: ELF ODD
• Consumer Staples: CCJ
• Financials: HOOD IBKR SCHW SOFI TOST
• Health Care: BCRX EXEL GILD ISRG SRRK
• Industrials: BV ECG MYRG NXT RKLB
• Information Technology: AVGO CLS CRDO CRWD DAVE FTNT GRRR IONQ KD NET NOW PLTR QBTS QUBT SHOP SNOW TSSI YMM GLD GEV VST
• Thematic ETFs: GLD
• Utilities: GEV NRG OKLO VST