The TML Talk | June 1st, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  
  • The NASDAQ remains in leadership, advancing through short-term resistance and holding gains into the week’s close. Price is now above rising 10-, 21-, and 50-day moving averages, and volume supported key moves mid-week. The index is digesting prior strength constructively with multiple setups starting to follow through.
  • The S&P 500 is building on recent momentum, reclaiming its 21-day moving average and tightening near prior range highs. While volume has stayed modest, structure is improving, and group rotation beneath the surface continues to support broader health.
  • The Russell 2000 is still range-bound below key long-term MAs but has shown early signs of strength in select cyclical and education-related names. The Dow lags slightly, unable to confirm broader strength, but remains neutral. Leadership remains concentrated in growth-centric sectors, with quantum, utilities, and education names all maintaining technical alignment.
• Current Market Status:
  
  • Growth themes tied to power infrastructure, quantum computing, and nuclear innovation continue to attract consistent institutional attention. Many leaders within these sectors are flagging tightly, holding above rising support, and triggering volume-backed breakouts. Several high-beta IPOs and platform names are forming tight ranges with RS improvement, offering tactical entries.
  • Pullbacks in leadership stocks have been shallow and orderly, with strong support found at key short-term levels. Volume trends remain constructive, and RS lines in top-performing groups are starting to diverge again from the broader market. The rotation into utility-linked names, education platforms, and quantum enablers continues to show sector-wide alignment, reinforcing the conviction in these macro-backed themes.
  • Despite some lingering indecision at the index level, the underlying market tone remains constructive. Traders should stay focused on setups showing clear RS behavior, volume confirmation, and group alignment, while avoiding extended names or low-volume breakouts. The current environment supports both core trend holds and tactical performance enhancers.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “We’re seeing a lot of people still underestimating what’s happening in front of them. When you’ve got ten stocks across multiple sectors all setting up simultaneously—quantum computing, energy utilities, cybersecurity, even education—you have to stop treating it like random noise and start treating it like a signal. This kind of alignment doesn’t come from retail traders guessing right. It’s institutions positioning into structural macro themes. If you’re still thinking it’s a coincidence, you’re going to miss the next wave.”
• “You’ll hear a lot of talk about the indexes—how many distribution days there are, what the Dow’s doing, whether the S&P is above or below the 50-day. That’s all background noise if leadership stocks are trading clean. If my top setups are holding their 10-day moving average and offering add points, that’s all the information I need. I don’t care if the S&P’s down 30 points. If the best stocks are acting right, that’s your market health check.”
• “Most traders go into a position hoping it becomes their next big winner, and that’s where they go wrong. Great trades don’t start with high conviction. They start with tight structure, proper risk, and a willingness to observe. You size the initial trade like a performance enhancer—something quick and responsive. Then, if the stock earns it, you grow it into a core. That’s how you compound responsibly. You don’t bet big out of the gate.”
• “Every time I break my own rules, it costs me. And the one I used to break most often was cutting a trade too early. I’d see it dip a little, panic, and close it—only to watch it reverse and run 10% higher the next day. The lesson is simple: have a plan before the trade starts. If the plan says stay in unless X happens, then stay in. If I’d spent more time walking around the block instead of watching the screen tick by tick, I’d have a bigger account and fewer regrets.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Respect Short-term Moving Averages: Use the 10- and 21-day as guideposts for adding to strength or trimming weakness—many leaders are holding these levels, and violation often signals rotation or short-term exhaustion.
• Size Positions by Intent: Treat performance enhancers with reduced sizing and quicker exits, while core positions should offer broader risk/reward with structure that allows for adding as bases extend or tighten.
• Watch for Group Rotation: Confirm setups through coordinated action in related names—utilities, nuclear, education, and cyber groups are seeing tight alignment in relative strength and breakout structure across multiple stocks.
• Avoid Low-volume Breakouts: Breakouts without volume tend to fail quickly—look for conviction through above-average volume relative to prior sessions, ideally paired with RS line movement or follow-on group action.
• Tighten Stops in Volatile Names: Stocks with wide ranges and low float should be given minimal room to fail—use prior day lows or 10-day breaks to limit exposure and recycle capital into tighter setups.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Communication Services – Broadcasting, Streaming & Internet:

• $LZMH: Illiquid early-stage name with IPO-style base. Still too thin for most accounts, but showing constructive behavior. Remains on watch for confirmation.
• $META: RS trend holding with price consolidating just under highs. Continues to respect the 10-day throughout market volatility. Core name with potential add points on pullback.
• $NFLX: Tight action post-breakout with support at the 10-day. Volume-backed move remains intact. Buyable on weakness into MAs or breakout continuation.
• $RBLX: Never lost the 10-day on consolidation. RS stayed firm throughout. Still a viable add near short-term support.
• $SPOT: Volume surged post-earnings. Tight range forming above MAs. Buyable on breakout with confirmation.

Consumer Discretionary – Automobiles & Education:

• $BROS: Reclaimed support and flagging near highs. Volume improved as structure tightened. Early-stage entry viable on continuation.
• $CVNA: Wide but constructive range holding above short-term MAs. RS recovering. Entry valid if breakout resolves with volume.
• $DASH: Breakout held gains with shallow flag forming. RS trend strong. Setup remains intact above MAs.
• $DUOL: High-tight flag near highs with RS at peak levels. Volume declining orderly. Buyable on breakout through range.
• $GRND: Reclaimed key MAs with a tight structure. Volume declining. Buyable on pivot reclaim if group stays firm.
• $LOPE: Weekly base forming under resistance. RS improving within the education group. Entry valid on breakout with volume.
• $LRN: Three-week flag forming above the 10-day. RS aligned with peer strength. Breakout buyable on volume confirmation.
• $MELI: Flagging after earnings run. Structure remains clean. Entry valid on breakout if RS holds.
• $ONON: Tight base forming near prior highs. Volume light but supportive. Buyable on continuation through range.
• $RIVN: Still lagging peers but holding rising MAs. Structure stabilizing. Buyable only on strength reclaim.
• $TSLA: Bull flag forming above short-term MAs. RS intact. Buyable on breakout or pullback to trend.

Consumer Staples – Specialty Retail:

• $AMZN: Broad base under highs. RS trend improving. Reclaimed short-term moving averages and flagging above prior resistance. Breakout through upper range offers potential entry.
• $CHEF: Quiet RS standout. Holding post-breakout gains. Buyable on support retests. Potential sleeper name within the group.
• $ODD: Breakout IPO in AI-driven retail. Volume surged into highs, now flagging in tight upper range. RS holding. Second entry likely if flag resolves higher on volume.
• $WMT: Tight flag near highs. Bellwether acting well. Watch for continuation with volume. Defensive long if rotation broadens.

Energy – Utilities & Nuclear:

• $CEG: Tight flag just under highs. Holding above rising short-term MAs. RS remains strong. Part of broader energy infrastructure theme. Buyable on breakout with volume.
• $OKLO: Recent IPO with breakout volume. Extended in the short term but digesting constructively. Flag development would offer high-probability entry.
• $VST: Post-breakout leader among utilities. Tight base holding above all major moving averages. Buyable on continuation or pullback to short-term support.

Financials – Capital Markets & FinTech:

• $COIN: Reclaimed support with above-average volume. RS stabilizing with crypto sector. Buyable on support test or breakout through recent highs if BTC confirms.
• $HOOD: Tight handle forming below highs. Light pullback with improving RS. Buyable on breakout with clear stop.

Health Care – Biotech & Pharmaceuticals:

• $BCRX: Pulled back to short-term MAs after high-volume move. RS still holding. Setup viable if it can tighten here and reclaim upper range with volume.
• $EXEL: Coil forming post-earnings. Holding near-term support with volume fade. RS improving. Buyable on breakout through recent range.
• $HIMS: Digesting recent earnings breakout. RS strong, flag forming near highs. Buyable on breakout with volume confirmation.

Industrials – Space Machinery & More Nuclear:

• $NNE: Quiet RS leader within nuclear group. Volume rising along with consistent support behavior. Flagging constructively and viable on continuation.
• $RKLB: High-beta setup flagging at short-term resistance. Volume constructive. Addable near support with clear stop. Breakout remains viable if group rotation holds.
• $SMR: Monster volume breakout followed by orderly pullback. RS strong. Watch for consolidation to tighten—setup developing for next leg higher.

Information Technology – Cyber Security, Quantum, & Software:

• $APP: Held tight range above earnings gap with declining volume, respecting 10- and 21-day MAs. RS trend remains elevated, suggesting rotation into mobile ad tech continues. Buyable on volume-backed breakout with group confirmation.
• $AVGO: One of the most stable names in the semis. Flagging constructively above short-term support with little selling pressure. RS remains firm—still viable for breakout entry or continued core hold.
• $CLS: Digesting prior breakout with price holding above base and 10-day. Volume has faded constructively. Setup remains valid for continuation through prior highs.
• $CRWD: Pre-earnings pullback found support right where it should—just above the 21-day. RS never broke trend. Watching for post-earnings resolution, as structure remains technically intact.
• $DAVE: Early-stage name with RS improving. Tight flag forming above rising support. Thin name, but structure supports aggressive entry on volume through pivot.
• $IONQ: Extended from breakout but continues to lead quantum space. Recent digestion appears orderly with no distribution. Watching for secondary entry after flag tightens.
• $MSTR: Pulled-back cleanly, was lagging BTC and IBIT. Reclaimed 10-day and tracked crypto strength. Buyable on breakout if $BTC confirms or breaks out from handle.
• $NET: Reclaimed 21-day with RS turning back up. Volume constructive on up days. Valid entry possible on breakout through recent range if group strength persists.
• $NOW: Holding post-earnings gains above all key MAs. Tight intraday ranges suggest healthy digestion. Structure favors breakout continuation with volume.
• $NVDA: Continues to act as the market’s lead barometer. Never broke 10-day during consolidation. RS and volume confirm leadership. Pullbacks remain viable entries.
• $PAY: Tight range forming just below highs. RS trend improving, but volume light. Watching for breakout with sector confirmation.
• $PLTR: Broke out through multi-week range with volume. Held gains cleanly and RS remains strong. Addable on support tests or fresh breakout.
• $RGTI: One of the tightest quantum setups. Volatility momentarily increasing but holding 10-day and structure compressing near prior highs. Buyable on volume-supported move.
• $SNOW: Gapped through resistance on earnings with follow-on volume. Structure holding. Viable for continuation with group strength.
• $TSSI: Thin name that held its breakout area. RS trend intact. Flag pattern may resolve higher if volume supports.
• $TWLO: Reclaimed short-term MAs after failing to break lower. RS improving alongside group. Viable early entry on strength through short-term range.

Materials – Gold & Precious Metals:

• $AEM: Mining name holding near range highs. RS improving as gold prices stabilize. Early-stage flag forming. Buyable on breakout with confirmation and volume.
• $TGLS: Decent bull flag. Reclaimed key MAs and pulling back on light volume. Buyable on breakout continuation with confirmation.

Thematic ETFs – Bitcoin, Gold, Nuclear, & Quantum:

• $GLD: Benchmark for gold exposure. Consolidating near upper range. RS stable. Strength would support rotation into materials and miners.
• $IBIT: Leading spot Bitcoin ETF. RS trend remains intact. Tracking BTC price cleanly. Ideal proxy for monitoring crypto sector momentum. Watch for confirmation alongside BTC strength and volume.

Ross’ Watchlist

• Communication Services: LZMH META NFLX RBLX SPOT
• Consumer Discretionary: BROS CVNA DASH DUOL LOPE LRN MELI ONON TSLA
• Consumer Staples: AMZN CHEF ODD WMT
• Financials: COIN HOOD
• Health Care: BCRX EXEL HIMS
• Industrials: NNE RKLB SMR
• Information Technology: APP AVGO CLS CRWD DAVE GRND IONQ MSTR NET NOW NVDA PAY PLTR QUBT RGTI SNOW TSSI TWLO
• Materials: AEM TGLS
• Thematic ETFs: GLD IBIT
• Utilities: CEG NRG OKLO VST

Recording