Shakeout Or Weakness?
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
April 16, 2025
Market Action
QQQ – Negative Expectation breaker as we gapped down and followed through. We did close off lows but looks like a rejection of the 21ema
The short term expectation based on today’s close is sideways or lower. Continuing to expect volatility and news catalysts.
Bulls want to see us hold and build a higher low here.
Bears want to see more uncertainty about the tariffs/trade war and for us to follow through down
Daily Chart of the QQQ.
IWM – Good close off lows
IBIT- Some fade off highs. Holding the 21ema
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Prebuilt Deepvue Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA Gap down on news but close off lows. Negative if it can’t fill that gap quickly
TSLA Break lower from the tight range but a close off lows, below the MAs
META Still leaking lower
PLTR Filled the gap, setting up a pivot if it can form up above the 21ema
HOOD break lower
CRWD reversal down but holding that level for now
MSTR holding near the key level
Stocks Showing RS
Even through the market is in a correction, it’s best practice to continue to monitor for persistent RS and developing themes. Tracking names every day will point you to the leaders early as the market is entering it’s last stage of the correction.
However just because a stock is showing RS one day does not mean it is buyable, and RS matters most in the later third of a correction.
MP inside day on big volume but volatile
AU miners continue to trend, still short term extended
AGX inside day
GH Oops Reversal, watching for follow through
GEV oops reversal, watching for follow through up
CELH small downside reversal, watching for a directional move
SDGR noticing the volume coming in. Big move off lows but this is still Stage 1
TTWO still watching for a push through this pivot
SPOT watching for a break from this range, inside day
TGTX watching for a breakout from this range
TMDX acting well
LOAR watching for a pullback into the level and 10ema
WGS watching for a flag breakout
Today’s Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Most leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, PLTR, CRWD, HOOD, MSTR
Stock on Watch
PLTR, HOOD, CRWD, MSTR, MP, AU, AGX, GH, GEV, CELH, SDGR, TTWO, SPOT, TGTX, TMDX, LOAR, WGS
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: TBD – Cyber interesting in growth space
Market Thoughts & Focus
Some pullback today but decent close off lows. Now to see if we hold or see more downside. We remain vulnerable below the 21ema and 200sma on the QQQs, still expecting volatility.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way
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