The TML Talk | April 5th, 2025

Market Overview

• Indexes and General Market Trend:
  • The NASDAQ officially dropped into bear market territory this week, now down over 20% from its highs after two consecutive gap-down days. A bounce would be normal, but there’s no evidence yet of any meaningful attempt — no accumulation, no follow-through, no leadership.
  • The S&P 500 remains under pressure as well, with no signs of support holding. There’s no 1.75%+ surge on volume, no broad sector rotation, and no sustained buying. The character of the market has shifted completely — what remains is deterioration across major groups and failed rallies getting sold into quickly.
  • Small caps via $IWM had briefly shown strength but have since joined the broader breakdown. Even the names that had held up the best — biotech, China tech, aerospace — are breaking down alongside everything else. What’s left are a few speculative names and off-the-bottom setups, but those are not the type of stocks that typically lead sustainable rallies.
• Current Market Status:
  • This is not a market for new buys. The names that remain on screen are there only because they haven’t broken yet — not because they’re offering actionable entries. No group is showing any coordinated accumulation or relative strength that would suggest leadership is forming.
  • Follow-through days will still be watched, but without breadth and real setups, they’re meaningless. The same way I won’t buy a second-tier stock just because it’s in a strong group, I’m not going to trust a follow-through day when there’s no confirmation in leadership. I’m in cash here unless I’ve got shorts working already — and even then, not adding.ip and volume are key to flipping the risk-off tide.

Key Lessons & Quotes

• “This is not the list of leaders — this is like the handful of what’s left standing. The survivors, as opposed to any — right, the ones that they hate yet.”
• “I would never sit here after two gap-down, go-downs like that and be telling you to be short here… But this is much more of a market where if you were to look at an individual stock like an ESLT — that’s just barely breaking its 23 on Friday as the market completely falls apart — I go, well, you’ve got to look at the group. Aerospace and defense — most of this group is starting to break significantly.”
• “The stuff that’s on here would almost never make it on a normal day. The fact that some of the best-looking stocks are what I would consider junk, whippy, off-the-bottom trades — this would never be on for consideration as a top-tier stock to trade.”
• “If all you can find are RKT and maybe a Bitcoin-related like an MSTR — which just don’t look horrible — that tells you all you need to know.”
• “It’s a 24/7, 365-day thing for me. I’m always looking at what’s the strongest. Ultimately, that tells you everything.”
• “When these are the best stocks — and they’re stocks that would typically never make a list on a solid day — it’s letting you know exactly what’s going on.”
• “Even if the market had followed through and this is what you could find — I can give you a 90% chance it’s going to fail.”
• “What separates the valid follow-through days that actually work from the failed ones is — almost every time — the health and breadth of leadership.”

Actionable Takeaways

• Stay in cash unless you’re already short: There are no traditional growth setups here. If you’re short from higher levels, there may be room to let trades work — but this is not an area to initiate fresh risk.
• Keep watchlists up not to find buys, but to monitor what hasn’t broken: When the real turn happens, you’ll be able to spot it by seeing what’s still standing and beginning to shape up across a group.
• Don’t jump the gun on a follow-through day: A rally attempt can form at any point, but without leadership, it’s just a bounce. I don’t act on FTDs without confirmation from setups across multiple sectors.
• Continue post-analysis: Take your last 10 trades, categorize the losses, and figure out if they were market-driven or process-related. Use this period to refine your system — not to chase bottom ticks.
• Focus on group confirmation and coordinated setups: I don’t care what the indexes are doing if I can’t find 10–15 stocks across 3–4 sectors setting up properly. That’s what turns me on to risk — not price alone.

Stock Mentions and Commentary

Cash:

• This remains a cash environment unless you are already short or have specific setups working from higher levels. No traditional long setups on deck. Screens are being run purely for feedback and relative strength tracking — not for initiating new positions.

Potentially Shortable Names on Faux Rallies

• $APP: Former leader showing similar structure to PLTR. Now rolling over. “A will probably follow suit with the Reddits of the world.”
• $NVDA: Still a strong fundamental story, but technically vulnerable. “It can continue to be the best stock by far fundamentally… but the growth is over, it’s slowed down. That’s why we buy on fundamentals and technicals, but sell only on technicals.”
• $PLTR: Broke down and failed to reclaim key levels. Potential short into rallies. “My guess is — same way I would on the long side — momentum has clearly shifted in all the stuff that has been moving up. So if you can find anything that doesn’t look broken in a group of stocks that is clearly breaking and headed lower, it’s a good candidate.”

Ross’ Watchlist

• Tech: GRPN RDFN
• Med/Health: ALHC CORT CPRX CRVO GILD RGC SLNO TGTX
• Everything Else: ATGE BJ CELH COOP ESLT HSAI LRN MSTR OLLI ORLY RKT