Model Stock Case Study – PLTR 2022 – 2025

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Model Stock Case Studies

The purpose of this monthly article is to study fantastic market leaders from the past to build a blueprint of what to look for in the future.

Each article will cover

• The context, story, fundamentals of the company
• The Model Book Move
• Key Setups
• Important Takeaways and Lessons

This month we are analyzing the strongest stock of the past few years: PLTR

We will be focusing on the move that started in mid 2023 with an earnings gap and potentially ended in Feb 2025 with the start of the tariff correction.

The overall ~1200% Rise can be split into distinct parts. We will cover each in detail:

Here is the overall move on a weekly chart.

Driving Factors

The trend in PLTR was caused by significant earnings and sales growth throughout the move. Note the acceleration. PLTR also was a leader in AI.

They also announced a share buy back program.

According to Deepvue Data, the number of funds owning PLTR doubled over this span from just over 1k to well over 2k.

2023 Earnings Gap and Power Trend

The 1,200% move started with a earnings gap propelled PLTR into a new stage 2 uptrend.

Here is the earnings gap on a 65 minute timeframe. This is a textbook post gap range. Initial move higher, pullback that is supported, setup day, breakout of a range that starts the real trend.

From this range breakout PLTR rose over 75% in a matter of a few weeks.

The aggressive sell would have been on the gap up reversal and the defensive sell would have been when it could not reclaim that reversal high and faded before breaking below the recent lows and 10ema

After these potential sells PLTR pulled back below the 21ema before rallying and progressing slightly higher, but not quite with the same vigor. It eventually broke down again below the 21ema and set up a new base

Choppy Basing Period

Up the right side of this new base was the potential for a swing trade. I love how it respected the base low and set up a tight range and pop from it, an aggressive buy point.

Then it reclaimed the 21ema, shot higher before fading near the 50sma and key range level and looked to break down below the 21ema.

However the next day we put in a positive expectation breaker with a gap up and strong action. The day after was a tight setup day and PLTR re-broke out the following day.

PLTR pushed about 17% from this area before stalling and breaking below the 10 and 21ema again.

It leaked below the 21ema for a while before gapping up on earnings.

PLTR setup another post gap range which could have led to a nice swing, likely selling into strength on the big reversal

After that reversal PLTR followed through down and broke back below the 21ema, signaling a new base

During this new base again I love how it respected lows and built up into a strong earnings gap and the potential for another quick swing trade from a Day 1 or Day 2 entry. Likely the sell would be on the gap down and loss of the range or on the breakout failure.

PLTR again formed a new base and another great example of how it liked to build out base lows.

The best entry up the right hand side is when PLTR popped back through the 21ema after a slight gap down.

The next best entry would have been on the oops reversal or range breakout.

Sell points would have been on the loss of the 10ema after noticing the wicks as PLTR could not progress.

After this breakdown PLTR broke the 21ema and gapped lower and then formed a reversal extension off the 200 sma.

Power Trend

PLTR snapped back quickly, not really setting up an entry except for aggressive traders on the subtle positive expectation breaker.

However after a move higher it set up a nice 21ema pullback and a gap and go entry on earnings. Then a bit higher another range breakout opportunity.

This was a very strong trend.

PLTR continued higher and featured another Gap and go on earnings, This felt later in the trend but the gap up was actually just as PLTR was breaking into new all time highs. It rose 60% in a few weeks from the gap up close. What seems high often does higher.

PLTR eventually formed another base against the 50sma after breaking the 21ema

2025 Top and Correction

PLTR featured another Gap up on earnings and there was an aggressive swing trade opportunity from the tight day range breakout.

The negative reversal on that would have been the sell and PLTR broke below the 21ema as the market deteriorated during the 2025 correction.

PLTR showed some respect for the prior base’s pivot before breaking down further as the correction accelerated.

As of this day of writing (April 7, 2025) PLTR put in a strong reversal off lows which could be the start of the bottoming process for a new base