The TML Talk | March 26th, 2025

Market Overview

Indexes and General Market Trend:

The NASDAQ (QQQ) sits below its 30-week moving average, signaling a tough environment with emotional, gap-driven swings. No clear follow-through day emerged—volume and setups lack conviction. The S&P 500 mirrors this, under its 200-day SMA, with gold and banks as rare bright spots. Small caps show no notable strength, reinforcing a risk-off tone.

Current Market Status:

The market’s choppy, with biotech speculative and tech quiet. China’s rising (e.g., $WB, $BABA) amid an inverse U.S. trend, tied to AI and tariffs, but leadership’s thin. Defensive names like gold hold, yet high-growth sectors lag, leaving the deck “not hot” per Nick.

Key Lessons & Quotes:

• “When the deck’s not hot, I’d rather go fishing.” – Nick Schmidt
• “I’ve seen powerful bull markets where I made money, and tech was always part of it.” – Ross Haber
• “Preserve capital when it’s not easy money.” – Jackson Neidich

Actionable Takeaways:

• Wait for Clarity: Sit tight until setups and volume confirm a trend—patience beats forcing trades.
• Watch China: Nick is watching $WB and $BABA on strength, but keep stops tight as U.S. markets falter.
• Prioritize Liquidity: Focus on liquid names like $OKTA if growth reemerges—avoid thin stocks.

Ross’ Watchlist

• Communication Services:
• Consumer Discretionary:
• Consumer Staples:
• Financials:
• Health Care:
• Industrials:
• Information Technology:
• Materials:
• Real Estate:
• Utilities:
• ETFs: