Rejection Down From the 50 SMA Area
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 26, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Break lower from the tight day at the key levels of the 50sma and 21ema. This also lines up with the AVWAP from high. This is a good test for the market, can we hold and reform, or do we see another leg down from here.
Today we got the bearish option I laid out in the prior update.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action is consolidation or lower Continuing to expect volatility.
Bulls want to see us hold here and the prior range either with a positive expectation breaker or strong upside reversal
Bears want to see us follow through lower
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Break lower from consolidation day after testing the 21ema area
IBIT- some move lower, holding the 50sma for now
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
We also just added a prebuilt Theme Tracker
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500.
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA Sharp break lower from the range and 21ema
TSLA Reversal lower, holding the 21ema for now
META Follow through lower
RDDT holding near range lows for now
PLTR watching for respect near the MAs
OKTA back to the 10ema from the tight day
MSTR Good close off lows. Some RS
ROOT sharp move lower, feels like a change in character, on watch for break below the 21ema
BABA leaking lower below the 21ema
TGTX Sharp break below the range and 10ema
CRWD reversal back down, testing the 21ema
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
Important note – A lot of the growth names had Oliver Kell “Wedge Pops today. The next key areas to watch will be ema crossbacks as the form higher lows against their 10/21 emas.
AU watching for breakout from this flag
FUTU setup in a range if the china theme breaks lower
GH see if it can hold this range
TVTX watching for breakout from this range
BROS watching for it to hold the MAs, for an upside reversal
LINE watching this overall setup. REIT and not the fastest mover
VRNA watching for a reversal back higher
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT, BABA, TGTX, CRWD
Stock on Watch
GH, LNTH, UBER, UPST, CRK, MDGL, PTGX, GEO, VRNA, RKLB, SHOP, HIMS, EQT, MP, ACLX, CRDO, RRC
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: China, Biotech/Pharma, Insurance, Miners, Health Care Equipment, Oil & Gas
Growth showed follow through today. Watching Cyber OKTA CRWD
Market Thoughts & Focus
Most of the ranges that were forming resolved down today. Looking through my screens not very encourages and things need to hold and build up again. We’ll see if we get follow through down.
Of growth these are names I’m more focused on
PLTR HOOD TEM COHR TSLA MSTR BROS SOFI DOCS OKTA CRWD DASH
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way