Upside Reversal after CPI
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 12, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap up after CPI, pull in and choppy basing into the close. Locally we have been holding this area for 3 bars and could see a further rally into the 200 sma area. Longer term we remain in a downtrend below the moving averages.
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action consolidation or higher.
Bulls want to see us push higher from the recent range and close well
Bears want to see us reverse back lower sharply, or rally weakly.
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Pausing and forming a short term pause in the downtrend
IBIT- bouncing since the gap down. Rallies into the declining 10ema are suspect
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA pop higher into the declining 10ema. watching for reversal down
TSLA pop higher, rallies into the 10ema and prior gap level are suspect
META gap up but fade off the highs
RDDT follow through higher, we may have seen the correction lows, needs to form higher lows and reclaim the MAs. Likely resistance against the MAs
PLTR pop higher and good close above the level
OKTA Tightening in this flag
MSTR tight day
ROOT consolidation day at the pivot
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.
HSAI tight action after the breakout, watching for continutation
PTGX watching for a range to form
ACLX biotech name that can trend, pushing above the 200sma
TGTX pulling into the pivot
ADMA another biotech that can trend pushing higher
LI and china names still look strong
KC very speculative name formign a pivot
AEM setting up in this base, watching for a breakout. Miners look strong PAAS
YOU setting up a pivot here still
GOLD setting up still under this DTL
ZLAB tight
BABA tight action within the base
ERJ setting up a range post power move
MP strong upside reversal at the pivot
GSHD wide range but tight closes in this range. ERIE however in insurance broker lower
UBER holding near the 50 sma, needs to respond here
WGS needs to hold here
INOD strong action off the 50sma, watching for 21ema reclaim
BE Acting well in this base, holding above the MAs
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
HSAI, PTGX, ACLX, TGTX, ADMA, LI, KC, AEM, PAAS, YOU, GOLD, ZLAB, BABA, ERJ, MP, GSHD, ERIE, UBER, WGS, INOD
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners Health Care Equipment China Aerospace/Defense.
Market Thoughts & Focus
I like the action today. It still follows the these that a local low has been set and potentially some base lows. This does not mean the volatility is over as it can be very choppy as we work to form higher lows.
We still need to see follow through and expecting resistance at declining MAs. If we reverse lower sharply expecting further weakness.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way