Halfhearted Bounce
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
March 11, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Attempted move up but overall just chopping around here and closing down slightly
The short term expectation based on today’s close and recent action consolidation or lower. We remain in “oversold” conditions so sharp counter trend moves can be expected and volatility will be high. With that said “oversold” can always get more oversold. We are pretty stretched now
Bulls want to see us a positive expectation breaker and a sharp snapback rally, ideally after a positive news catalyst
Bears want to follow through lower or a weak rally mostly sideways.
Daily Chart of the QQQ:
IWM – Mostly consolidation day within an existing downtrend
IBIT- Gap up with a decent close after being close to testing the 200 sma yesterday. Constructive but still in a daily downtrend
Trends (0/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Below Increasing
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
Important Note: Many of these “leaders” are leading to the downside. Still they provide a good gauge of market environment. As new leaders reveal themselves I will curate this list.
NVDA tried to rally a bit, but faded off highs. In daily downtrend and rallies are suspect
TSLA consolidation day and holding this level for now after yesterday’s steep down day
META slight up day
RDDT inside day with a strong close, ideally rallies into the MA’s and sets up a higher low
PLTR inside day
OKTA flagging into the 10ema
MSTR rally off the 200 sma
ROOT could not breakout, would prefer a day of pullback before another attempt
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
5 Day Slope % Change in Deepvue has been my new favorite way of spotting stocks showing Relative Strength.
As mentioned before 1 day of positive action is not enough, we want to look for persistent relative strength and stocks that are forming sound bases in new leading themes. There is not much of that second part yet so we are casting a wide net
In this type of market something that can look to be holding up well can completely fall apart the next day. Need to be nimble, selective, and quick if participating at all.
HSAI Lidar company strong action after Mercedes news catalyst
PTGX follow through up, will need a range now
XPEV and china names continue to trend
ARQT strong action after the inside day
BE popping above the MAs, this is a name that got hit hard on Deepseek news
BABA building out well, but hard to trade and trust these china ADRs
MP hard hard back to the pivot and 21ema
LNTH pullback after filling that gap, watching for a MA pullback and flag now
ACMR tried to push a bit, still acting very well for a semi
AU and miners strong again today. AEM GFI etc
TGTX on watch for 10ema area pullback
ZIM double inside days, low in the base but above the MAs
MDGL strong outside day, biotech
YOU setting up a pivot under the 200sma
GOLD looks setup
ZLAB biotech, at the handle pivot, inside day
MCK inside day. EXEL, GILD, AMGN pulled back
ERIE forming a range, poor close today
Watchlist in List form
Potential Leaders + Mega Caps ( Overall leading to the downside for now)
NVDA, TSLA, META, RDDT, PLTR, OKTA, MSTR, ROOT
Stock on Watch
HSAI, PTGX, XPEV, ARQT, BE, BABA, MP, LNTH, ACMR, AU, AEM, GFI, TGTX, ZIM, MDGL, YOU, GOLD, ZLAB, MCK, EXEL, GILD, AMGN, ERIE
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Insurance Biotech Miners Health Care Equipment China Aerospace/Defense.
Market Thoughts & Focus
Lots of halfhearted bounces going through my screens, yet to see really distinctive power higher especially from growth themes. The tariff talk is still swinging the market. We are pretty oversold, I could envision a pretty sharp up day in the next few sessions. Volatility expected.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way