Rally Attempt Day 1 – Stocks Showing RS
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
February 28, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Today we got the sharp move down that was then bought up. This was potentially the first day of a rally. With that said it is still suspect until the market continues to act constructive, sets up higher lows, and very importantly, leading stocks develop sound bases and setups. I like how we undercut the prior base lows as well as the 200 sma.
I will be posting for Trade Lab members an educational article this weekend on how to trade and interpret a market rally.
All in all today was constructive but we need to see follow through. The bottom line is that even if today was the low of the correction, there is plenty of time to get exposed, leaders to develop sound entry areas, and for the market to prove itself more.
Short term expectation based on the close is follow through up but I’m aware that we are coming from very oversold conditions and rallies are suspect below the key moving averages.
Bulls want to see us follow through higher from here, higher lows to form, and more strong closes as stocks develop.
Bears want to see us reverse back lower and undercut today’s low
IWM – Strong oops reversal and close, but still below all the moving averages
IBIT- Oops reversal but still a lot to prove under the MAs and with the gap down
Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Below declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Below declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Below declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Heatmap from Deepvue
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Post Market Action.
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA Strong oops reversal, how it acts next week will be critical especially as it tests the declining MAs (if it does)
TSLA strong action off the 200sma and gap low. Strong close. But needs to restart an uptrend and form higher lows
META very strong upside reversal off the prior base pivot and reclaiming the 200sma. Under the 21ema
RDDT forming a range against the base low. Constructive if it pushes higher, Could then setup a higher low just below the 21ema
PLTR strong oops reversal off the base pivot. Potential reversal extension, needs to start forming higher lows
CRWD potential higher low off the prior base pivot. But visually still needs time to base due to the sharp decline.
BROS definitely showing RS near the gap up low. I think this should be a focus. I like how close this is to all time highs and where it is on a weekly chart.
U still holding the 10ema, forming a pivot above
DOCS oops reversal and reclaiming the 21ema, on watch for follow through
ROOT very strong action, insurance is leading, I do view this more as a performance enhancer than liquid leader type
Stocks Setting Up / Showing RS
LNTH more of an off the bottom play, Stan Weinstein type setup. Health Care Equipment has been showing strength and this has held the earnings move well. Watching for a push through the 200 sma
EAT acting well, outside day higher low, would like this base to build out more and in general that’s kind of how I feel looking at a lot of charts. Many of the growth names had a significant and sharp drawdown.
NTNX acting well in context after the gap up, watching for a range.
URBN I like the gap above the 21ema and good action today
LMND like ROOT insurance is the leading group and also like root this is more of a performance enhancer, watching for a build out below then break above the downward trend line
WGS acting well, watching for a push through the pivot
MCK breakout. Pharma, health care, biotech acting well
LLY strong upside reversal retesting the pivot area
EXEL trending
AMER don’t see many people discussing this, very strong recent IPO
GILD still trending
ZLAB strong action, biotech performance enhancer type. Like the volume profile
GRND longer term trend, upside reversal, fast mover. I like failed breakouts that form 21ema ranges
AMGN slower mover but leading area
IDCC holding well
SPOT strong oops reversal, RS
AEM strong oops reversal, watching for follow through. Miner
MP strong action near the pivot
UBER on a weekly this has been basing for quite some time. forming a range against the 21ema
SEI nice upside reversal action at the pivot. Watching for follow through above the range pivot
RBRK not showing huge RS but it has now pulled back to the base low. This is a recent IPO that showed a lot of strength during the prior move. Tightening here
AXSM watching for a range breakout
Themes and Leaders
Strongest Themes: Biotech Miners Insurance China Aerospace/Defense
Market Thoughts & Focus
Day 1 of a rally attempt. Now we need to see follow through and for stocks and themes to develop proper spots starting with higher lows.
It has been a very sharp decline so my initial thoughts are we need more time but need to give each rally attempt respect and be open to the possibilities.
Today we say a bit more life from more growth stock types names, although insurance, biotech names still look the strongest
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way