No Follow Through – Gap Up Reversal Down
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
January 14, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Gap up but then reversal action down. Reaffirms the choppy nature of the market currently. Yesterday’s low is still key. Below the moving averages
Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or lower
Bulls want to see us hold here and form a range, setting up a higher low
Bears want to see us follow through lower and take out the key low
IWM – Stronger action today with a better close than the qqq
Bulls want to see us follow through up and get above the 21ema
Bears want to see us follow through lower breaking the 200 day
IBIT- Gap up to the 21ema and hold.
Bulls want to see us pbuild out sideways here or follow through up
Bears want to see us reverse lower back to the 50sma
Trends (1/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Down Below Declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Down Below Declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma – Down Below Declining
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA gap up and reversal down. Still below the MAs and acting wild/weak
TSLA gap up and downside reversal at the prior ATH. Still base building but would have liked to see follow through. Bulls want to see this flag out and set up for a push higher. Bears want to see this follow through lower
RDDT Gap up but then wide action at the 21ema
GEV strongest acting of the leaders, gap up and decent close, room to flag out above the 10ema
VST similar to GEV but a bit weaker
ALAB still belwo the 21ema, woudl love for this to base out a few weeks
PLTR below the key level and 50 sma, needs to build a base here
MSTR Decent action with IBIT acting better than QQQ. Watchign for a range builder or follow through up. A reversal down woudl signal more time needed
Stocks Setting Up / Holding Up
HIMS not quite ready yet but looks to be forming a base bottom against the prior all time higher, watching for a higher low range
AVGO holding tight here, watching for a push through that pivot
RBRK acting well, watching for a push from that inside day
CEG watching how this range develops, GEV the leader in this theme
CRDO acting well near the 21ema in a short flag. Watching for a push through. For semis to go and be a focus NVDA needs to shape up a bit
RKLB not quite primed but noticing there was not much follow through lower
HUBS watching for push through the 21ema
DECK bit of follow through today. Watching for a push from this consolidation
Themes and Leaders
Key Themes: Software, AI, Semis. Crypto, Energy
These names have the top RS, growth stories
TSLA GEV RDDT ALAB VST
Market Thoughts & Focus
After yesterday’s action we expected a strong showing today, instead for the most part we got reversals lower. I think how we act the rest of the week is key. Do we settle down, tighten ranges and start not gapping as much? or do we continue to see a lot of volatility and follow through to the downside.
Were in a choppy corrective market, have to play it fast, pick tight spots, and manage risk tightly if participating. Less is more for most people until be get a nice higher low and start trending above the 21ema.
Goal is to keep tracking the key names, watching for RS, and Handling the names I have well. Will be watching tomorrow for some positive expectation breakers.
Daily Focus is will be TSLA AVGO IBIT MSTR
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way