NVDA Sell the News Event – What’s Next?
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
January 7, 2025
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Market Action
QQQ – Follow through down after the hesitation close. Back below the 21ema. Feels like an expectation breaker
Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or lower
Bulls want to see us reclaim the 21ema and build sideways with less chop
Bears want to see us follow through lower below the 50sma
IWM – Rejected at the 21ema again and follow through down
Bulls want to see us continue to build the range here and eventually pop through the 21
Bears want to see us follow through lower
IBIT- Breakout failure and negative expectation breaker
Bulls want to see us retake the pivot or build a range and reset
Bears want to see us follow through lower
Trends (2/4 Up) – Based on the QQQ
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Down Below Declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Down Below Declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma -Up Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
Performance Today from open on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members
Leaders and Key Moves
NVDA large reversal bar after CES event. This feels significant. Failed breakout and large signs of selling. Likely will need time for the chart to repair
ALAB follow through lower
RDDT follow through down
PLTR follow through down and breaking the 21ema
TSLA some follow through down. lower high in for now
GEV holding up much better than most growth names
SEDG and solar names some strength today
Stocks Setting Up / Holding Up
RKLB will keep an eye to see if it can hold above the 21ema, near the pivot
RUM needs to hold above the HVC / 10ema for me to be interested. in choppy markets the speculative stuff is more failure prone
BROS holding the pivot
VST big upside reversal near the pivot
NAMS still in this range, fade off highs
GEO range below the pivot
DOCS worth watching as it builds this base
RBLX holding above the pivot for now
BE this theme holding the strongest. forming a range above the MAs, watching for a push through highs
CRDO holding better than most semis
RBRK negative action but still worth keeping an eye on
Themes and Leaders
Key Themes: Software, AI, Semis. Crypto
Liquid Leaders
These names have the top RS, growth stories
TSLA PLTR RDDT ALAB APP GEV
Performance Enhancers
SOUN QMCO RGTI RUM
Market Thoughts & Focus
The fade yesterday follow through and leaders saw increased distribution. Was stopped on positions.
We’ve had a transition from a very strong trending market to now much choppier waters. January brings a new administration and likely many news events to further add chop.
Best we can do is monitor the leaders carefully and see how things resolve. Less is more for me now.
Semi theme took a big hit today, SMR energy theme strongest.
Daily Focus is on BE VST but want to let the dust settle.
Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way