Upside Reversals to End the Week – Santa Rally?

Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

Market Action

QQQ – gap down then a strong reversal, before a fade into the end of the day. Supportive action but does not negate the sell bar wednesday. We are still below eh 21ema

Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or higher. Larger context however still however warrants some caution

Bulls want to see us hold, build, and rally
Bears want to see us follow through lower and take out today’s low

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IWM – Still weaker, similar oops reversal action

Bulls want to build here or rally strongly

Bears want to see us break lower belwo this range

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IBIT- weaker bounce attempt, right at the 21ema

Bulls want to see us build sideways and rally

Bears want to see us follow through lower

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Trends (2/4 Up)

Shortest – 10 Day EMA –  Down  Below Declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Down  Below Declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma -Up  Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising

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Groups/Sectors

Performance Today on the Left, Performance over the past 20 days on the right.

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Performance Charts from Deepvue

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

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Heatmap from Deepvue

S&P 500

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Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right. This is now a preset for Deepvue Members

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Post Market Movers. Not much of note

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Key Stocks and Moves in Deepvue

NVDA positive outside day below the MAs, watching for follow through up next week

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TSLA faded end of day, right at the ATH. Watching for respect and a push off that level next week

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META follow through down after bounce attempt

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AMZN decent close

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GOOG nice oops reversal – this is when we open below the prior day low and push up through it

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ALAB showing great RS, break from this flag. RMV5 tight signal yesterday

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RDDT good action holding the 21ema

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MSTR great action today, watching for follow through. Today low risk setup at the 50 day, oops reversal

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PLTR strong oops reversal turned outside day. Great close

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GEV strong action still in this tight base, looks amazing on a weekly

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Stocks Setting Up / RS

Focusing more on watching the leaders and watching for relative strength versus looking for just setups

What we are looking for is sustained RS throughout the market pullback

CRDO building a nice range here, pivot just below the earning gap close

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SMTC big of a fade but setting up a range at the 21ema post gap

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NVCR inside day

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AVGO fade but forming a range here, watching for a u turn higher

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RBRK flag into the HVC

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GOOG watching for follow through

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GME would love it to get a bit tighter with an inside day, but setting up a pivot here

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RBLX pushed today watching for follow through

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ASAN tight day, watching for a push higher

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INTA good action, watching for follow through. Another oops reversal example actionable through the prior day low

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HIMS swing trade setup and volatile name, that green line is the prior ATH. Inside day watching for a push higher

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DUOL great action off 50day area, watching for follow through

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SQ oops reversal at the prior base pivot, watching for follow through higher

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VST watching for follow through higher

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BE watching for follow through higher

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AFRM watching for follow through higher

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APP watching for follow through higher

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AVPT watching for follow through higher

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KD watching for follow through higher

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GEO tight inside day at the pivot

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COIN at the 50 day, watching for follow through higher

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BILL watching for follow through up

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NNE volatile day, setting up a spot, very spec name

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TSLA watching for a push off the prior ATH

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RKLB actionable today, forming up a range above the prior ATH

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LMND setting up a range just below the 21ema

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Themes and Leaders

Key Themes: Software, AI

These names have the top RS, growth stories

TSLA PLTR RDDT ALAB APP DOCS GEV

Focusing on stocks holding above or near the 10emas, then 21emas, recent pivots, and earnings gaps.

Will be sorting by weekly closing range tomorrow to see stocks holding up.

Quick tip!

Sort the DV leaders screen or larger watchlist by Weekly Closing Range, % Vs 21ema, or RS 1 week to quickly find top RS names

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Market Thoughts & Focus

Really like todays action, not only because it was largely positive, but because it creates a clear line in the sand. For the indexes and leaders, a break of today’s low suggests more weakness, larger pullback, and more time needed. If we hold and build though, that low can be used to manage risk against

Leaders acted well today, ALAB RDDT in particular which held up the best.

A lot of names set up in ranges near or just below the 21ema which the potential to follow through up early next week. however, if these ranges resolve down, or pushes fail, again that suggests more time is needed.

Lots of oops reversals to study above, that can be a great entry tactic in a leader during a short pullback. Often risk can be managed under 2%.

Anything can happen, Day by Day – Managing risk along the way

Recent Trade Lab Reports

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