Gap and Fail – NVDA, TSLA Fall as Mega Caps Underperform
Richard Moglen
Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue
November 25, 2024
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Market Action
QQQ – Classic monday morning gap up and fill. We have now filled the prior gap down which is a positive. We remain above all the moving averages
Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or lower
Bulls want to see us hold here and build upward towards highs
Bears want to see us follow through down and break below the moving averages
IWM – Got short term stretched and closed near the open – room to pullback
Bulls would want to us constructively flag out sideways and then reconfirm higher
Bears want to see a large reversal back down towared the 21ema
IBIT- Gap down and some follow through, still above the rising 10ema. Was short term stretched and all eyes were on bitcoin 100k. Think a constructive pullback that forms a higher low spot is actionable, big base and a lot of FOMO
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Trends (4/4 Up)
Shortest – 10 Day EMA – Up Above Rising
Short-term – 21 ema – Up Above Rising
Intermediate term – 50 sma -Up Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising
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Groups/Sectors
From yesterday’s close on the left, over last 20 days on the right
Performance Charts from Deepvue
Deepvue Leaders Heatmap
S&P 500
Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right
Post Market Gap Ups and Gap Downs – Crypto related names down
Key Stocks and Moves in Deepvue
NVDA follow through down as semis continue to underperform. Testing the 50 day, see if it can build there
TSLA reversing friday’s move. Expectation is follow through lower
META tried to push teh moving averages but was rejected, still in the range
AMZN inside day and up through the 21ema
MSTR holding the 10ema for now, high volatility expected from this range it is building, gapping down slightly in post market
RDDT downside reversal day, could not fill that gap. At the 10ema and top of consoldiation, see if it can build there, otherwise may have a meeting with the 21ema
APP downside reversal
PLTR downside reversal after the gap
HOOD similar, expectation is further pullback
HIMS big move and re-breakout, see if it holds
HIMS big move and re-breakout, see if it holds
RVLV nice expansion, low risk spot was the outside day
GH also nice expansion, similar outside day nov 19
LYFT pop from the tight area, see if it can u turn
GME push from inside day, under key level
ALAB gap up but fade, could envision a retest of the mini base
GLBE nice push from double inside
GEV downside reversal.
Stocks Setting Up
COIN acted well today, building out above the base high (orange line, watching for push higher, ideally has one more tight day or even upside reversal off the base high
SNOW close near lows but inside day and tight to end the day on the 65 min chart. Estimates improving
INOD tight in this post gap mini base, AI name
HUT crypto miner in this range above the base high, a whippy one
PODD still in post gap flag
ESTC inside day, but not a huge far of the bigger pattern
Themes and Leaders
Key Themes
Crypto, Fintech, Software, AI, Semis, Alt Energy
These names have the top RS, growth stories
TSLA PLTR HOOD MSTR COIN RDDT APP DUOL NVDA AXON FTNT DASH SHOP GEV
Recent Earnings gaps and powerful moves
These names are good to watch for pullback spots
AAOI APP AXON BROS COIN GEO IONQ UPST TEM BILL DOCS FRSH LUMN ALAB PLTR SOUN LYFT TSLA HOOD POWL Z AX AMSC LUNR PLNT TOST CRDO COHR RDDT RKLB TRMB VST WVE CEIX LMND MSTR SOFI VRT FTNT MCK DFS MLI CADE HIMS MARA HUT ROOT CRS FHN HQY PODD UPWK GEV OKLO NTNX DOCU FN DUOL GDS FOUR SHOP RKLB SNOW ESTC
Market Thoughts
Pullback today in some key leaders, something to seriously take note of and watch if there is further distribution, also not seeing many new prime setups.
Make sure you know your plan and what if scenarios for what you own. Likely you made good progress the past few weeks, you want to ensure IF a larger correction happens that you keep the majority of that.
That being said we are still above the moving averages on the QQQ – you have to respect the uptrend until it falters. SNOW gap up will be a good tell of current risk appetite.
Day by Day – Managing risk along the way