MSTR Pushes Higher as Market Holds On

Richard Moglen
Richard Moglen

Stock Trader & Student of the Markets. I help traders improve their systems & performance at TraderLion & Deepvue

November 18, 2024

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Market Action

QQQ – good action, gap up and decent closing range. Positive reaction after friday’s close. The action of the leaders friday was a bit of a tell.

What’s important now is how this inside day resolves over the course of the week with the gap looming above. NVDA earnings a key event for tech this week

Short Term Expectation based on the close is consolidation or higher

Bulls want to see us continue to build here and ideally push up and fill the gap
Bears want to see us follow through down and test the 50 day moving average

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.36.02

IWM – also inside day at the 21ema but a weaker closing range.

Bulls would want to see a rally up from the inside day, or an undercut and rally of the 21ema and then rally higher
Bears want to see the inside day resolve down and close below the 21

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Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.38.02

IBIT- still forming a falg above the rising moving averages, woudl like to see this work off the extension and build sideways more

This remains one of the key themes I’m focused on

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.39.23

Trends (2/4 Up)

Shortest – 10 Day EMA –  Down Below Declining
Short-term – 21 ema – Down Below Declining
Intermediate term – 50 sma -Up  Above Rising
Longterm – 200 sma – Up – Above Rising

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Groups/Sectors

From yesterday’s close on the left, over last 20 days on the right

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Performance Charts from Deepvue

Deepvue Leaders Heatmap

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Heatmap from Deepvue

S&P 500

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Group Ranks: 1 Day, 1 Week, 1 Month, 3 Month from left to right

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Post Market Gap Ups and Gap Downs

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.53.32

Key Stocks in Deepvue

NVDA upside reversal just below the base pivot now – Earnings Nov 20. I prefer this weak/sideways action before earnings versus a run up.

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.54.19

TSLA another catalyst gap following news that there would be less regulation on Autonomous vehicles.

I would prefer a few week base here to form under the recent swing high, let the 21ema catch up

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.55.31

META still looks weak, consolidation day

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.59.25

AMZN similar, pulling back to the base pivot, see if it can firm up here

Xnapper 2024 11 18 16.59.48

MSTR the strongest stock in the market – but they reported a secondary after the close, see how it acts tomorrow

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.04.49

AFRM great follow through from the upside reversal

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.06.53

BE decent day 2 action – was A+ day 2 follow through but sold off a bit into the EOD, can watch for flag to form, still big volume

Make sure to read my trade opportunity breakdown here about friday’s gapper setup

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.07.53

SQ fantastic breakout – RMV 5 tight yesterday – fintech a key theme right now

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.09.56

HOOD gap and go

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.11.22

YPF reconfirmation , extended but wanted to include as a great example of a low volume & volailtity 21ema pullback near a base pivot, so many big winners from this setup.

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.12.16

COIN follow through from 10ema pullback area

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.13.54

ALAB slight push through the DTL, one to watch for a spot next few days if not in. May react to NVDA earnings

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.14.24

RDDT inside day on the 10 ema

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.15.09

VST was good action, was great but faded along with BE

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.15.41

AX likely makes a move tomorrow, low volume inside day against the base

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.16.45

FLUT tight action post gap

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.17.27

GEO tight flag forming after the catalyst gap

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.18.16

HUT double inside days in spirit but a bit extended, would prefer this against the 10ema

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.19.01

AXON extremely tight – likely makes a move tomorrow. Later gap in the trend

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.25.10

DAVE tight near the gpa up low, software theme

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.26.23

AAOI still in this range, fade today but likely moves with NVDA

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.27.05

UPST tried to push today but faded back to the open, still one to watch as theme so strong

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.30.06

SEZL swing trade type name in this flag

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.29.07

SHOP negative day today but on low volume, can watch for upside reversal or post gap u turn

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.31.47

DUOL pulling back into the 21ema

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.33.17

TSM upside reversal at the 50 day, will move with NVDA

Xnapper 2024 11 18 17.35.14

Themes and Leaders

Key Themes

Crypto, Fintech, Software, AI, Semis

These names have the top RS, growth stories

TSLA PLTR HOOD MSTR COIN RDDT APP NVDA AXON FTNT DASH SHOP DUOL

Recent Earnings gaps and powerful moves

These names are good to watch for pullback spots

AAOI APP AXON BROS COIN GEO IONQ UPST TEM BILL DOCS FRSH LUMN ALAB PLTR SOUN LYFT TSLA HOOD POWL Z AX AMSC LUNR PLNT TOST CRDO COHR RDDT RKLB TRMB VST WVE CEIX LMND MSTR SOFI VRT FTNT MCK DFS MLI CADE HIMS MARA HUT ROOT CRS FHN HQY PODD UPWK GEV OKLO NTNX DOCU FN DUOL GDS FOUR SHOP RKLB

Market Thoughts

Strong action today from stocks and leaders, QQQ holding in there. how we deal with that gap will be interesting. Lots of names with short flags into their 10emas or short consolidations post gaps. See if those can push higher.

NVDA earnings wednesday will be key for semis and AI related names – there will be more news about demand, ai expectations

Focus on the leaders – if in one with a great cushion, focus on the trend

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